The WEO 2005 expects that if policies remain unchanged, world energy demand is projected to increase by over 50% between now and 2030. Energy-related CO 2 emissions will climb to a 52% higher level by 2030. “These projected trends have important implications and lead to a future that is not sustainable – from an energy-security or environmental perspective. We must change these outcomes and get the planet onto a sustainable energy path,” Ramsay said.

Since last year’s WEO, the World Alternative Policy Scenario is one of the scenario’s described (in some ten of the 600 pages). However, following the recommendation of William Ramsay, this scenario seems to gain importance within the WEO, which is mainly about mainstream energy fluxes like oil and gas. The alternative scenario projects a future where intentions acknowledged by the international community are effected through new policies. The growth of energy demand would be 1.2% a year instead of 1.6%, while there will be a shift to low- or non-carbon sources. Energy demand in 2030 would be 35% higher than now, while the CO 2 emissions would be 27% higher, thanks to a larger renewable share.

The IEA estimates that the higher demands in the ‘Business-as-usual’ scenario can be met with investments of 17 trillion dollars in the next 25 years. The WEO gives no estimate for the required investment in the alternative policy scenario.