Professor Jacqueline McGlade, Executive Director of the EEA said: “Levels of greenhouse gases would be much higher without current efforts to cut emissions. However, several countries within the EU-15 are not doing enough and could jeopardise the collective effort.”

With the existing and implemented policies, only the UK and Sweden will reduce enough greenhouse gas emissions to meet their Kyoto targets. Seven of the EU member states - Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain - are not on track to meet their Kyoto targets. These member states could face EU infringement actions if they fail to meet the target. To avoid this, these countries would have to buy € 2,830 million worth of Kyoto credits, according to the report 'Greenhouse gas emission trends and projections in Europe 2006'. This EEA-report presents an evaluation of historic data between 1990 and 2004 and projections of the progress of EU member states towards their 2010 greenhouse gas emissions targets.

The overall Kyoto target for the EU-15 is to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 8% on 1990 levels by 2012. Each member state has a differentiated emissions target; some must reduce emissions while others are allowed a limited increase. Countries can achieve these targets in several ways: by implementing policy measures, using Kyoto mechanisms and carbon sinks, and by cutting emissions through the EU's emissions trading scheme (EU ETS) climate change policy tool.

Additional measures

Only by implementing all existing and planned domestic policy measures and using Kyoto mechanisms and carbon sinks, can emissions be brought down by 8 %, according to the report. The EEA report calculates that existing policies will contribute only 0.6% to the target. Additional policies and measures will contribute an additional 4%, Kyoto mechanisms another 2.6% and carbon sinks 0.8%.

France, Germany and Greece could meet their target if additional measures such as Kyoto flexible mechanisms and reforestation are implemented. Finland, Luxembourg and the Netherlands could even exceed their targets. However, this cannot be assured, the report stresses.

Most sectors in the EU reduced emissions between 1990 and 2004. However, greenhouse gas emissions from the transport sector increased by 26 % over the period, and are expected to increase to 36% above the sector's 1990 emissions levels, even taking into account the effect of existing policies.

Because several member states still have not submitted final national allocation plans for second phase of the EU ETS, the report did not assess the potential reductions that could be ascribed to this system. The ten newest EU Member States are not part of the EU-15 burden sharing agreement and all, except Cyprus and Malta, have individual targets under the Kyoto Protocol. These new EU countries, except Slovenia, are all on track to meet their Kyoto targets, but this is largely due to the collapse of economies in the 1990s. The report says that emissions in these countries are now rising again.

More allowances

The EEA report forms the basis for a parallel progress report from the Commission designed to monitor national greenhouse gas emissions called ‘Progress towards achieving the Kyoto objectives’. This report also includes data from a separate annual inventory of greenhouse gas emissions. Both reports will be used by the European Commission to help judge the second national allocations plans (second phase NAPs).

Environment Commissioner Stavros Dimas recently said that the second phase NAPs so far submitted by 17 EU countries show that these countries are preparing to allow participants in the scheme to release about 15% more greenhouse gases in 2008-2012 than they did in 2005-2007. Dimas stressed: “The second national allocation plans under the EU ETS scheme are an important tool to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, but if member states put more allowances into the market than needed, the scheme would become pointless. I cannot let that happen.”

At the moment, the Commission Directorate General for Environment is busy analysing the second NAPs that they have received. It will take several weeks before the Commission is in a position to take any decisions. Dimas is disappointed: “Many of the NAPs we have received so far do not seem to take sufficient account of the real level of emissions from installations in the scheme. Indeed, taken together, the first 17 NAPs notified to us propose an emissions cap that is about 15% above the actual emissions level in those member states last year. I've said repeatedly that the Commission will be tough but fair in our evaluations of the NAPs. It is clear that we will need to be.”