Let me try to bring some more clarity: MEP Britta Thomsen was absolutely right, telling me that ultimately politicians have the last say in shaping the sustainability of the biofuels market in the years to come - it’s just the Western democratic system, right?

So what is happening within the EU political corridors? Let's check the three EU institutions:

The Commission - suffering the strongest battering of lobby groups - stays convinced that a binding 10% biofuels target must remain. The Commission prioritises that the target is binding, and at a 10% level, because it wants investment certainty for the industry.

The majority of the Council seems to agree on the 10%, maybe introducing some more flexibility and embracing green electricity and hydrogen as alternatives. It is clear that the Climate Package will be honoured by all Member States. Last week Britta Thomsen reminded me of the long negotiations between Merkel and Chirac to reach the proposed 10%. The UK intends to water down its target after the Gallagher Report, but does not have too many supporters.

The hottest discussion in the last few weeks took place within the European Parliament. In both the Energy and the Environment Committees, negotiations reached a high. Claude Turmes, rapporteur on the RE Directive, seems to apply the political principle 'Always ask for more than you expect to receive' and calls to drop the target. Meanwhile the Environment Committee, responsible for fuel quality and the biofuels criteria, proposed a goal of 4 % by 2015 and an indicative 8-10% by 2020, trying to get stricter criteria in exchange.

Obviously, an almost unanimous deal is being cooked. My impression: a binding 10% biofuel target would remain to satisfy some stakeholders, and the criteria proposed by the Commission will be strengthened to satisfy the others.

Clearly, the minimum GHG emission savings percentage of 45 to 60% will put the domestically-produced biofuels out of competition. That might be regrettable, but frankly, I don’t see a better way for Europe to prove its leadership in reducing emissions. The sign will be clear: biofuels are part of the solution to climate change, and not part of Europe’s Common Agricultural Policy.

This should not be seen as too negative altogether. European companies have the perfect opportunity to go global and invest in sustainable production abroad, while helping to implement the criteria and develop new technologies.

All this is nothing more than an exercise in predicting. We will have to wait until politicians and other stakeholders return to Brussels from their summer holiday.

Honestly, this is the only reason why GreenPrices feels obliged to leave for a three-week holiday. Enjoy your holiday; see you again at the 25th of August.

  Christian Hudtwalcker

  Editor GreenPrices News Desk

  c.hudtwalcker@greenprices.com