De Boer’s hopes have been partly reinforced by recent international meetings. In Vienna all Climate Treaty countries convened and agreed on a margin of 25 to 40 % emissions reduction in 2020. “That was more than I had hoped for”, De Boer looks back. “Instead of keeping their powder dry, countries in principle chose for the most ambitious scientific scenarios. This is a very promising basis for further negotiations.”

De Boer is less enthusiastic about the recent APEC meeting between heads of state from Asian and Pacific countries. “Regarding long-term targets, the APEC only succeeded in formulating energy efficiency targets, even lower or comparable to business-as-usual. That didn’t deserve any champagne yet. However, everyone now agrees that the UN process is central.”

This awareness took a change in attitude by several countries leading the discussion, like China, United States, Brazil and India. De Boer: “Large developing countries show a promising attitude. They announced serious actions, they have become more pro-active. They have policies, but they need support. On the other hand, since the State of the Union at the start of 2007, the US and President Bush have chosen a final position in the scientific debate. Moreover, they promised to return to the UN process. That will not be sufficient. But first let’s see the political will, and next the agenda for the negotiations.”

Meanwhile, the European Union is still leading the pack, by setting a target of at least 20% emissions reduction in 2020, or even 30% if other richer countries also contribute to ambitious targets. De Boer sees possibilities to influence the process even further: “Very important in this is the discussion about adaptation to climate change. The EU already published a green paper on the issue, but it would be wise if the EU will show some concrete measures in Bali. The EU has to show to developing countries how they will be supporting them, not only by market tools. For instance Germany is considering of auctioning EU emission allowances and dedicating the revenues towards international cooperation. This kind of initiatives would drive developing countries towards some kind of target setting, for instance regarding energy efficiency standards.”

Obviously, the UN Climate Bureau does not want to bet on the current ‘Kyoto mechanisms’ only, like the Clean Development Mechanism. The CDM instrument enables industrialised countries to support projects in developing countries and get credits for that, but CDM is also widely criticised for its inflexibility and complexity.

De Boer thinks more instruments will be needed: “Although CDM offers a lot of possibilities, the instrument should be more simple. In the first period we have been focusing at the environmental efficiency, now we should focus more on market issues. CDM should be more credible, it should also contribute more to alleviation of poverty. And meanwhile, I don’t exclude clean coal and nuclear energy to be part of this. I cannot imagine that these technologies will not be part of the solutions in countries like India and China.”