Let's first illuminate some positive points from Bush's speech. For the first time, the president has acknowledged that federal action concerning global warming is required. The US president also shows a remarkable optimism concerning technology development. This optimism is to his credit.

In recent years, the US has shown that technology development may very well result in a prosperous market - the US wind energy market is proof of that. So Bush promises to put a lot of money into technology development, and also promises to make new technologies available for developing countries. Meanwhile, he largely neglects what would already be possible now. For instance, many efficiency technologies are already available, but they are not implemented because nobody feels the need.

Regarding technology development, seventeen years is quite a considerable period. In the last seventeen years, the global wind energy market developed from practically zero to a flourishing business. So it is understandable why Bush puts his money on nuclear energy, carbon capture and storage with coal fuelled power plants and renewable energy. These technologies will probably be able to stop the growth by 2025.

Bush is convinced that this commitment will be a good start for the Paris meeting of large emitters in the world, which will be discussing an international post-Kyoto agreement today and tomorrow. But the US bid is more of the kind one would like to see coming from countries like China and India: a voluntary goal, relying on technology development.

I fear that Bush's bid will undermine the international negotiations. The difference between the minus 20% or even 30% by 2020 from the EU and the zero growth target of the US by 2025 is too large to bridge. The European Commission has not reacted yet, Bush's speech is still too fresh. But I cannot imagine that the US federal commitment will be applauded.

The bid is too little, too late. The scientific community within the IPCC has calculated that disruptive consequences of global warming can only be prevented if the global growth in emissions stops before 2015. This will only happen if the global mean temperature rise will not exceed 2 degrees. That's why the EU decides to have at least a 20% reduction target for 2020. The Bush scenario fits in the IPCC scenarios leading to a rise by 3 to 4 degrees.

Reading the speech of Bush really gives the impression that the US president believes the global warming problem is proven, that he believes the IPCC figures. But according to the concrete actions, this US president does not feel any urgency.

Rolf de Vos
Editor in chief
GreenPrices
r.devos@greenprices.com